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Modelling of Public Financial Security and Budget Policy Effects


Iryna Zaichko, Maryna Vysotska, Olena Miakyshevska, Inna Kosmidailo, Nataliia Osadchuk


Vol. 21  No. 9  pp. 239-246


This article substantiates the scientific provisions for modelling the level of Ukraine’s public financial security taking into account the impact of budget policy, in the process of which identified indicators of budget policy that significantly affect the public financial security and the factors of budget policy based on regression analysis do not interact closely with each other. A seven-factor regression equation is constructed, which is statistically significant, reliable, economically logical, and devoid of autocorrelation. The objective function of maximizing the level of public financial security is constructed and strategic guidelines of budget policy in the context of Ukraine’s public financial security are developed, in particular: optimization of the structure of budget revenues through the expansion of the resource base; reduction of the budget deficit while ensuring faster growth rates of state and local budget revenues compared to their expenditures; optimization of debt serviced from the budget through raising funds from the sale of domestic government bonds, mainly on a long-term basis; minimization of budgetary risks and existing threats to the public financial security by ensuring long-term stability of budgets etc.


Budget Policy, Public Financial Security, Indicator, Ratio, Strategic Guidelines.