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Title |
Formation of Scenarios for The Development of The Tourism Industry of Ukraine With The Help of Cognitive Modeling |
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Author |
Tetiana Shelemetieva, Nataly Zatsepina, Marta Barna, Mariia Topornytska, Iryna Tuchkovska |
| Citation |
Vol. 21 No. 7 pp. 8-16 |
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Abstract |
The tourism industry is influenced by a large number of factors that affect the development scenarios of the tourism in different ways. At the same time, tourism is an important component of the national economy of any state, forms its image, investment attractiveness, is a source of income and a stimulus for business development. The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical study to identify the importance of cognitive determinants in the development of tourism. The study used general and special methods: systems analysis, synthesis, grouping, systematization, cognitive modeling, cognitive map, pulse method, predictive extrapolation. Target factors, indicators, and control factors influencing the development of tourism in Ukraine are determined and a cognitive model is built, which graphically reflects the nature of the influence of these factors. Four main scenarios of the Ukrainian tourism industry are established on the basis of creating a matrix of adjacency of an oriented graph and forecast modeling based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use to forecast the prospects of tourism development in Ukraine, the definition of state policy to support the industry that will promote international and domestic tourism. |
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Keywords |
tourism, methodology, cognitive modeling, factors of influence, cognitive map, development scenarios. |
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